Forecaster
Series preset:Method:
How each method works (recap table)
| Method | Formula | Worked example |
|---|---|---|
| Simple MA | F = (sum of last W)/W | (20+15+22)/3 = 19.0 |
| Weighted MA (fixed) | F = 0.5·Y₂ + 0.3·Y₁ + 0.2·Y₀ | 0.5·22+0.3·15+0.2·20 = 19.5 |
| Weighted MA (linear) | weights [1,2,…,W] normalised | W=3 → newest value counts most |
| Exp. smoothing | Fₜ = α·Yₜ₋₁ + (1−α)·Fₜ₋₁ | larger α = reacts faster to change |